The Rivals
Starmer convened an emergency Cobra meeting on 23rd March after authorising US defensive operations against Iranian missile sites from RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia. His approval on Trump relations hit -10. 77% of Britons fear Iran war. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper warned Iran on 20th March against targeting UK interests. He's managing an international crisis while his domestic coalition fractures.
YouGov MRP released 25th March shows Labour forecast to win just 12 seats in May's Welsh Senedd elections. That's down from current dominance. A 23-point vote collapse to 13%. Plaid Cymru becomes largest party with 43 seats. Reform enters the Senedd for the first time with 30 seats. Labour has governed Wales since devolution in 1999. This wipeout would end 27 years of control.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatened resignation over immigration reforms. Only 377 migrants have been returned to France under the £475m three-year deal. That's a 2% return rate from 18,790 small boat arrivals. At least six deported migrants returned to the UK, four hidden in lorries in the last two weeks.
Farage challenged Starmer at PMQs on 25th March, citing 70,000 total illegal crossings under Labour with 1,000 in the last week. Labour lost 51 of 68 council by-election seats since May 2025. The party that should own competence can't deliver it.
Reform won 48,000 votes in Warwickshire and got 23 councillors. The Conservatives won 40,000 votes and got 9 councillors. Those numbers decide May elections, not manifestos. Badenoch faces local contests where Reform outperforms her party seat-for-vote despite finishing second in raw totals.
Suella Braverman, now Reform's spokesman for Education, Skills and Equalities, attacked Badenoch on 25th March over proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Braverman accused her of "stupid personal attacks" and "puerile insults." The Conservatives are defending their electoral base while their most prominent defector undermines them from Reform's front bench.
Michael Holt, Conservative group leader on Babergh council, defected to Reform on 23rd March at a Trinity Park event attended by 900 people. That's seven weeks before polling day. Badenoch needs tactical discipline and candidates who don't jump ship. She's getting neither.
The Tories finished fourth in one of their safest seats in by-elections this cycle. Reform councils may impose 9% tax rises, but Conservative councils aren't winning the comparison either. Badenoch's problem isn't policy. It's that her voters are becoming Farage's, and her councillors are joining them.
Farage earned £125,182.76 from Cameo videos in one year. That included a £155 message praising a violent disorder convict and endorsements for neo-Nazi events. The Guardian reviewed 4,000 clips. He used the far-right slogan "if in doubt, kick them out" more than 20 times.
His defence: if he sold shoes to a murderer, would that be his fault? He paused his account on 25th March citing security reasons. That was five days after the investigation dropped. This is a man who demanded France repay £700m for failed migrant prevention while monetising extremist content at £85 per video.
He's invested £275,650 in Stack BTC with potential £9m upside, then advocates crypto tax policy. The conflict stares you in the face. His MPs stormed out of PMQs on 25th March when Starmer called him an "absolute disgrace" over 9% council tax rises in Worcestershire.
Reform suspended five candidates in six days. Chris Parry went for antisemitic remarks about Shomrim. Stuart Niven diverted a £50,000 Covid loan within 24 hours of his selection. Reform runs 12 councils and has 677 councillors. Farage called Parry "intensely patriotic" in January. Now he's suspended.
The pattern is clear: defend controversial figures until media exposure forces retreat. That's not vetting. That's damage control dressed up as principle.
The Lib Dems believe Labour is vulnerable in at least 12 councils in May. Max Wilkinson called Farage's Cameo work a "shameless cash grab" and said "for the right price, he will apparently say almost anything." That line landed. It's specific, quotable, and cuts through.
But Davey received two articles in the data coverage: one on local elections, one on crime and shoplifting positioning. That's not a media strategy. That's statistical noise.
The Lib Dems won't gain ground by being the responsible opposition when Reform and Restore dominate every scandal cycle and Labour collapses in Wales. Davey's electoral logic is sound: pick off Labour councils while Reform and the Conservatives fight over right-wing votes. The execution is invisible. No one remembers the party that comes third in a two-way brawl, even if they're picking up seats quietly while everyone watches the punch-up.
Green membership went from 55,000 when Polanski ran for leader to 220,000 now. That's a 4x increase. He declared the party's previous target of 30-40 MPs "under ambitious" on 20th March and said becoming PM is "on my mind." His actual ambition: wealth tax, climate action, and proportional representation. He'll settle for reshaping democracy rather than leading it.
YouGov MRP shows Greens breaking through with 10 seats in Wales, the first time in a devolved parliament. The NEU, with 500,000 members, branded Reform "racist" on 20th March and invited only Polanski to its annual conference. That's institutional left-wing realignment away from Labour toward the Greens.
London councillors defected to Greens on 23rd March citing austerity and Gaza. Labour lost 51 of 68 council by-election seats since May 2025. The Greens are picking them up.
Polanski's problem: he claimed on 18th March he'd apologised on radio for calling himself a "boob whisperer" hypnotherapist. The BBC confirmed he lied. The Sun dug up his 2013 claims that hypnosis could enlarge breasts. That credibility gap matters when you're positioning as the serious alternative to Labour's chaos. Membership growth proves the left wants an alternative. Past conduct proves Polanski might not be it.
Labour's immigration crisis should have been Reform's gift. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatened resignation over border policy. Small boats returns collapsed to a 2% success rate. 70,000 illegal crossings under Starmer gave Farage every line he needed. Instead, Reform MPs walked out of PMQs on 25th March after Starmer hit them with 9% council tax rises in Worcestershire. Farage can't attack Labour's broken promises when his own councils are breaking the same ones.
The Greens are taking Labour's left flank while Reform eats itself. Polanski's membership tripled to 220,000 as Welsh polling on 25th March showed Labour collapsing to 12 seats. Down from decades of dominance. The NEU invited only Polanski to its 500,000-member conference, not Starmer. That's institutional left-wing support switching allegiance. Reform leads national polls but can't govern a county council without tax hikes and candidate suspensions. The Greens govern nothing but promise everything. Turns out that's the better pitch.
Farage's Cameo scandal intersects with Reform's vetting crisis at the worst possible moment. Five candidates suspended in six days, all for the same extremist rhetoric Farage monetised at £155 per video. He earned £374,893 endorsing neo-Nazis while demanding rigorous standards from France on migrant returns. France returned 377 migrants. Farage pocketed six figures praising violent offenders. One is a policy failure. The other is a character failure. Only one of those is fatal in May's elections.
Reform's polling dropped from 35% to 23% because tactical voting finally arrived. Caerphilly and Gorton saw progressive voters unite behind Plaid Cymru and Greens specifically to block Reform. The party that thrived on vote splitting now faces it. And the Conservatives, down to fourth place in Priti Patel's own constituency, can't save themselves by splitting Reform's vote. They're too weak to split anything. Reform might not collapse before May, but they'll limp across the finish line bleeding voters to parties that can actually govern.