=== LEADIN === Reform leads national polls at 25 to 30 percent while Farage sells Cameo videos endorsing neo-Nazis for £141 and riot convicts for £155. The Guardian analysed 4,366 clips since 2021. Total earnings: £374,893. His spokesperson called them "occasional mistakes at scale." That's the competence pitch collapsing in real time.
Meanwhile, Green leader Zack Polanski claimed he apologised "immediately" for 2013 breast-enlargement hypnosis claims. BBC found no next-day interview. Instead, six days later, he told BBC Radio Humberside there's "anecdotal evidence, at least, of a growth in breast size." A Labour source called his apology narrative "absolute nonsense." More In Common polling shows Green support drops from 33 percent to 16 percent when voters learn about his Harley Street past.
=== RIVALANALYSIS === Reform won Sleaford Westholme with 45 percent on 13 March. But competence means governing, not just campaigning. Worcestershire County Council tells the real story.
Reform took minority control in May 2026 pledging to cut taxes. Within months they approved a 9 percent council tax rise, adding £145 to Band D bills. The council needed £59.9m in emergency government support to avoid insolvency. Farage admitted on 13 March: "I wish we hadn't bothered." Richard Tice claims £700m in savings across Reform councils. Worcestershire proves the opposite: when inheriting real fiscal crises, Reform implements the same brutal austerity it attacks others for choosing.
Farage has made £1.4m in outside payments since July 2024. He's breached Commons disclosure rules 17 times and mentioned Clacton four times in his first year as MP. YouGov puts Reform at 23 percent. More In Common says 30 percent. That seven-point gap matters because Farage is polling to govern while proving he can't.
Greens are polling at 14 percent, ahead of Lib Dems and winning by-elections like Gorton and Denton. Around 50 Labour councillors have defected to Greens in six months. That insurgency depends on Polanski maintaining authenticity. The BBC findings suggest he's as willing to rewrite his history as the politicians he attacks for lying to the public.
Liberal Democrats hold 72 MPs but poll at just 14 percent, tied with Greens. Two Lib Dem MPs are reportedly considering defection to Greens ahead of May local elections. Ed Davey's party faces irrelevance as Reform and Greens split the anti-establishment vote while Conservatives rebuild under Kemi Badenoch.
Badenoch vowed on 17 March to end "tribal" divisions and create a shared British identity. Lord Ashcroft told a Tory donor event he's sticking with Conservatives while she leads, but "after that, all bets are off." The Conservatives poll at 17 to 19 percent, behind Reform but ahead of Labour in some surveys. Their viral "Kemi & Co" estate agent video promoting stamp duty abolition has been viewed over 330,000 times since October.
Labour came third in Gorton and Denton behind Greens and Reform. Angela Rayner warned on 18 March that Labour is "running out of time" and must undergo a "fundamental reset" or face electoral wipeout. Guardian letters argued Labour MPs are increasingly considering replacing Starmer ahead of May's forecast disaster. With Labour polling at 17 to 22 percent and Keir Starmer criticised by Trump as "not Winston Churchill," the governing party is haemorrhaging credibility on all fronts.