The Polls

Six BPC-registered pollsters published voting intention surveys in March. YouGov, Opinium, More in Common, JL Partners, Savanta, and BMG all exclude Restore Britain from their headline numbers. Not one included them as a named option.

The polling industry's position is straightforward. Restore doesn't meet thresholds for inclusion because they have no MPs and limited council representation. But those thresholds are arbitrary. The Greens polled single digits for years before pollsters gave them a named line.

Reform UK averaged 27% across March pollsters, down from 30% last autumn. JL Partners had them at 31% on 17th March, but YouGov and Opinium both measured 25%. The gap between firms suggests volatility.

When Find Out Now included Restore as an option on 25th February, Reform dropped to 25%. The Greens hit 18%, Labour and the Conservatives tied at 16%, and the Lib Dems took 13%. Restore's 7% came entirely from the right-of-Labour bloc. That's a structural problem for Farage, not a rounding error.

The May 7 locals will force pollsters to answer a question they've dodged for months. If Restore wins council seats, do they still get excluded? If they commission polls showing double digits but BPC averages show zero, who's measuring reality?

Six firms control the narrative by deciding which parties count. Restore can commission Find Out Now polls every week, but unless YouGov or Opinium include them, the party stays invisible to the BBC, Sky, and every outlet that reports polling averages.

Betting markets already price Lowe at 14/1 to become prime minister. That's shorter odds than several sitting MPs. The money says Restore is real. The pollsters say they don't exist.

Farage's slide from 30% to 27% opens space. The next Find Out Now survey is due before May. If Lowe holds above 10%, BPC pollsters will have to explain why a party outpolling the Lib Dems in leadership tests still doesn't merit a named line.

They won't have an answer that doesn't sound like gatekeeping.