The Polls
The Analysis
Farage spent mid-March moaning about YouGov's "bizarre adjustments" that supposedly hide Reform's real numbers. Here's what he won't tell you: YouGov's constituency model nailed the 2024 election while headline polls flopped. Their tactical voting adjustments show how votes actually convert to seats under first past the post. More in Common's 30% looks pretty until you remember Reform won just five seats last time despite strong national polling.
The pollster spat misses the point. Reform averaged 27% across ten pollsters in March, down two points from February. That's not suppression. That's decline. And it's happening while Labour sits at 17%, tied with the Tories. Reform should be hoovering up every anti-government voter. Instead they're bleeding support.
Restore Britain's 7% matters because BPC pollsters won't track them. Find Out Now included them once in February. Since then, nothing. That creates a blindspot exactly when vote-splitting could decide who runs councils. If Restore holds even half that 7% in May's 5,000 council seat contests, Reform's path gets much harder. Farage already regrets taking Worcestershire County Council. He called it "virtually bankrupt" after whacking residents with a 9% council tax rise. Now picture that disaster repeated across dozens of councils where Reform and Restore split the vote, handing Labour control by accident.
The Numbers
The Tracker
When pollsters add Restore, it unlocks visibility in official averages, media commentary, and betting markets.
The Outlook
Reform needs to hit 30% consistently by mid-April to win real council control on 7 May. They're going backwards. More in Common's 30% is the outlier. Most pollsters put them at 25-27%, exactly where YouGov does.
The real test: will any BPC pollster include Restore Britain in April fieldwork? If they keep excluding Lowe's party, May's results will blindside analysts who thought the right votes as one bloc. Hope Not Hate found 54% of Reform members back forced deportations of non-white British citizens. Farage is softening his pitch to win centrist voters. His base wants blood. That gap is Lowe's opening.
Here's the structural problem: Restore needs sustained polling above threshold levels to force regular tracking. One 7% result won't do it. But if May's council results show Restore taking 5-8% in Reform target seats, pollsters will have to add them. Until then, the right-wing split is the biggest story nobody's measuring. Farage knows it. That's why he's fighting with pollsters instead of fixing his falling ceiling.