The Polls
The Analysis
Find Out Now put Lowe at 13.3% in their Best PM poll on 18 March. Sample size 1,000. Farage led with 26.4%, Green's Zack Polanski at 21%, Starmer third at 16.3%. Kemi Badenoch managed 14.3%. Davey scraped 8.6%, nearly five points behind Lowe.
Party support tells the same story with different numbers. Restore Britain polled at 7% in Find Out Now's survey of 3,029 adults following the February launch. Yet BPC member pollsters refuse to include Restore as a discrete option in their trackers.
Reform UK sits at 27% across March polling. YouGov shows 25%, Ipsos Mori 28%. Farage attacked YouGov on 13 March for "deliberately giving a misleading picture," demanding the British Polling Council intervene. YouGov defended its constituency-level tactical voting model, then agreed to publish additional data. The row generated headlines. It obscured the structural blindspot.
Two-thirds of Reform members hold positive views of Lowe. Hope Not Hate surveyed 629 members between 29 January and 16 February. That internal split never appears in published voting intention tables because pollsters won't measure it. The split exists. The numbers prove it. The industry just won't show it.
The Numbers
The Tracker
When pollsters add Restore, it unlocks visibility in official averages, media commentary, and betting markets.
The Outlook
May's 5,000 council seats will force the reckoning. Restore Britain won't stay invisible when ballot papers list both Reform and Restore candidates in the same ward. Voters will split. Results will quantify what pollsters currently hide.
Watch whether any firm adds Restore as a discrete option in the next round of BPC tracker polls. Betting markets already moved, cutting Restore's odds from 20/1 to 10/1 in one week back in February. Lowe himself is priced at 14/1 for prime minister. Those odds reflect real money staked on real outcomes, not methodological committee decisions.
Farage's YouGov battle created precedent for challenging pollster choices. If Reform can demand transparency, why can't Restore demand inclusion at 7% support? Either Restore performs and pollsters look incompetent for excluding them, or Restore collapses and the industry claims vindication.
The structural silence becomes a structural problem the moment Lowe's candidates start winning council seats Farage expected to take. That's eight weeks away.