The Polls

The gap between pollsters exposes Reform's ceiling problem. YouGov has them at 25%. Ipsos Mori says 28%. Sir John Curtice confirmed the March average is 27%, down from over 30% last year.

That three point slide matters. Reform can't afford to bleed support while a five week old rival pulls 7%.

Farage blames YouGov's methodology. He called their adjustments "bizarre" on 13 March, claiming their share price dropped 90%. But the pattern holds across firms. JL Partners shows 27%. The decline started before Worcestershire's 9% council tax rise, before Guardian investigators counted 4,366 Cameo videos endorsing neo-Nazis and crypto fraudsters.

Restore isn't in published tables yet. That 7% came from a bespoke Find Out Now poll commissioned by Lowe's team, not regular tracking. But the Best PM numbers are harder to dismiss. When a leader barely five weeks in outpolls the Lib Dems, that's a structural threat.

More in Common's data on the Greens offers the counter-example. Polanski's party dropped from 33% consideration to 16% when voters learned about his 2013 hypnosis claims. Personal scandals can crater insurgent parties overnight. Farage's £374,893 Cameo earnings haven't triggered that kind of freefall. But Reform members backing Lowe at two thirds support suggests the base is shopping around.

The May 2026 locals are seven weeks out. BPC rules mean Restore won't appear in most published polling until they hit minimum thresholds. That silence lets the vote splitting happen where punters can't see it.

Watch whether Find Out Now runs another Restore inclusion poll before May. If Lowe holds or climbs, the narrative shifts from curiosity to crisis.

First past the post turns a 27% Reform vote into Labour and Green wins if Restore peels off five points in the right wards. Reform leads the polls but can't govern on 27%. They need 35% minimum to survive vote efficiency problems. Right now they're eight points short with a rival fishing in their pool.